at least im cute
GET THE FUCK OUT OF MY LIFE
WOW how um
Someone who doubts their own doubt (You)
I think it helps that I “fight with a sword”.
[Continuing my look at Bayesian reasoning. My previous explanation of Bayes’ theorem.]
Perhaps the most fundamental question underlying Bayes’ theorem is what counts as evidence for a theory. Strangely there is a correct answer to this question which applies not just to Bayes’ theorem but all evidence: something is evidence for a theory if and only if it was more likely to observe that evidence if that theory is true as opposed to the likelihood of observing that evidence if it was false.
Admittedly that is a lot of verbiage but let’s take an example: Suppose I am inside my house one morning and I have the hypothesis that it snowed overnight. Considering I’d watched a weather report yesterday that said there was a 50% chance of getting the first snow of the season overnight (and that such reports had been more or less accurate in the past) I think there is a 50% chance that it snowed. How can you settle this, what would count as evidence for that it snowed? I can look outside and see if there is any snow on my porch. I can even go outside and take samples from the tops of different surfaces, checking them for snow. Suppose I do these things and it turns out that I can see snow outside and that when I go outside I am able to capture some snow. Seeing the snow should raise my probability that it snowed last night and likewise physically taking samples should do the same.
When he makes a mistake, he realizes it.
Having realized it, he admits it.
Having admitted it, he corrects it.
He considers those who point out his faults
as his most benevolent teachers.
He thinks of his enemy
as the shadow that he himself casts.” —
Tao Te Ching, Chapter 61
Lao Tzu, trans. S. Mitchel
Agreed, but which of the various reasons are you thinking of?
He was the most pretentious little weirdo. “Sex is so DIRTY, I am so TRAGIC and TORTURED because I got an ERECTION, I am going to MOAN UNHAPPILY INTO MY DIARY, WWEH”
Lo there do I see my father. Lo there do I see my mother and my sisters and my brothers. Lo there do I see the line of my people, back to the beginning. Lo, they do call to me, they bid me take my place among them, in the Halls of Valhalla, where the brave may live– forever.
-The 13th Warrior
General Charles James Napier,
Regarding the custom of Sati, in which a man’s widow is burned alive on his funeral pyre.